Strategic prospective analysis of higher education in Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17981/cultedusoc.11.1.2020.13Keywords:
Educational administration, University, Organizational change, Educational innovation, Future scenariosAbstract
Universities must adapt and anticipate emerging challenges to maintain their role in society. This article aims to propose an educational prospective framework that facilitates the analysis of alternative futures in higher education institutions. A normative prospective methodology is used, semi-structured interviews with experts are applied, as the basis for a morphological analysis that guides the definition of future scenarios. The results allow characterizing the strategic panorama of higher education in Colombia and the variables with the greatest influence on institutional accreditation processes are identified; specifically, the case of the University Institution of the National Sports School (Valle del Cauca, Colombia) is analyzed. The scenarios of inertial future, incremental development, structural change and setback are formulated, which lead to the elaboration of strategic recommendations for the best scenario. It is concluded that the proposed educational prospective analysis integrates institutional, internationalization, science, technology and innovation aspects and social projection for the construction of alternative future scenarios useful for strategic decision-making in higher education institutions.
Downloads
References
Andreescu, L., Gheorghiu, R., Zulean, M. & Curaj, A. (2012). Systemic foresight for romanian higher education. In, A. Curaj, P. Scott, L. Vlasceanu & L. Wilson, European higher education at the crossroads: Between the Bologna process and national reforms (pp. 995–1017). London: Springer.
Araya, R., Arias, E., Bottan, N. & Cristia, J. (2019). Does Gamification in Education Work? Experimental Evidence from Chile. Washington: BID.
Baena, G. (Noviembre, 2012). Prospectiva de la Educación Superior. Propuestas para el futuro que ya empezó. Prospecta america latina, III Congreso Latinoamericano de prospectiva y estudios del futuro, Mendoza, Argentina.
Baepler, P. & Murdoch, C. (2010). Academic Analytics and Data Mining in Higher Education. International Journal for the Scholarship of Teaching and Learning, 4(2), 1–9. Disponible en https://doi.org/10.20429/ijsotl.2010.040217
Barber, M., Donnelly, K. & Rizvi, S. (2013). An avalanche is coming: higher education and the revolution ahead. London: IPPR.
Bardin, L. (2011). Analisis de contenido. Sao Paulo: Ediciones ٧٠.
Barrè, R. Keenan, M. & Cagnin, C. (2008). Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Future Directions.En, C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo & R. Barrè, Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (163–169). Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-68811-2
Blaine, A. (2019). Interaction and presence in the virtual classroom: An analysis of the perceptions of students and teachers in online and blended Advanced Placement courses. Computers & Education, 132(1), 31–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compedu.2019.01.004
Bryan, C. & Clegg, K. (2019). Innovative assesment in higher education. New York: Routledge.
Carrera, M., Bravo, O., Marín, F. y Crasto, C. (2013). Futuribles y futurables universitarios para el desarrollo sostenible del estado Falcón. Revista Líder, 22(15), 39–74. Disponible en http://ceder.ulagos.cl/lider/images/numeros/22/2.-LIDER%2022_Carrera_pp39_74.pdf
Cheung, S. & Abelson, H. (2019). Computational Thinking Education. Singapore: Springer.
Coates, J. (2010). The future of foresight–A US perspective. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 77(9), 1428–1437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.07.009
Ejdys, J., Gudanowska, A., Halicka, K., Kononiuk, A., Magruk, A., Nazarko, J., Nazarko, L., Szpilko, D. & Widelska, U. (2018). Foresight in higher education institutions: Evidence from Poland. Foresight and STI governance, 13(1), 77–89. https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2019.1.77.89
Enciso, J. E., Córdoba, L. y Romero, L. C. (2016). Adaptaciones curriculares para el ingreso, permanencia y graduación de estudiantes con discapacidad: una experiencia desde la educación superior. Cultura Educación y Sociedad, 7(2), 72–93. Recuperado de https://revistascientificas.cuc.edu.co/culturaeducacionysociedad/article/view/1103
Flick, U. (2004). Introducción a la investigación cualitativa. Madrid: Morata.
García, F. (2015). Mapa de tendencias en innovación educativa. Education in the Knowledge Society Journal, 16(4), 6–23. Disponible en https://revistas.usal.es/index.php/eks/article/view/13493/0
Glenn, J. y Gordon, T. (2004). Metodología de investigación de futuros. metodología prospectiva; the millennium project. Buenos Aires: American Council for the United Nations University.
Godet, M. (2000). La Caja de Herramientas de la Prospectiva Estratégica. París: LIPSOR–CNAM.
Gomes, A. (2005). Proyecto Quo Vadis: El futuro de la investigación agrícola y la innovación institucional en América Latina y el Caribe. Quito: Red Nuevo Paradigma.
Gómez-Aguilar, D., Hernández-García, Á., García-Peñalvo, F. & Therón, R. (2015). Tap into visual analysis of customization of grouping of activities in eLearning. Computers in Human Behavior, 47, 60–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2014.11.001
Havas, A. (2005). Terminology and methodology for benchmarking foresight programmes. [Proyecto ForSociety].
Labanauskis, R. & Ginevičius, R. (2017). Role of stakeholders leading to development of higher education services. Engineering Management in Production and Services, 9(3), 63–75. https://doi.org/10.1515/emj-2017-0026
Leopkey, B. & Parent, M. (2016). Stakeholder perspectives regarding the governance of legacy at the olympic games. Annals of Leisure Research, 18(4), 528–548. https://doi.org/10.1080/11745398.2015.1092388
Lerís, D., Vea, F. y Velamazán, Á. (2015). Aprendizaje adaptativo en Moodle: Tres casos prácticos. Education in the Knowledge Society, 16(4), 138–157. https://doi.org/10.14201/eks201516138157
Licht, A., Tasiopoulou, E. & Wastiau, P. (2017). Open Book for Educational Innovation. Brussels: European Schoolnet.
Llorens, F., Molina, R., Compañ, P. & Satorre, R. (2014). Technological Ecosystem for Open Education. In, R. Neves-Silva, G. Tshirintzis, V. Uskov, R. Howlett, L. Jain, Smart Digital Futures 2014, 262, (pp. 706–715). https://doi.org/10.3233/978-1-61499-405-3-706
Loveridge, D. (2009). Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future. New York: Routledge.
Masini, E. & Medina, J. (2000). Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1(65), 49–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00127-4
Medina, J. y Velasco, C. (2014). Desafios para la transformacion productiva y educativa: hacia una sociedad y economia del conocimiento. Cali: Universidad Autonoma de Occidente.
Medina, J., Becerra, S. y Castaño, P. (2014). Prospectiva y política para el cambio estructural en América Latina y el Caribe. Santiago de Chile: CEPAL.
Miklos, T. y Tello, M. (2012). Planeacion prospectiva: una estrategia para el diseño del futuro. México, D.F.: Fundacion Javier Barros Sierra.
OCDE. (2017). The OECD Handbook for Innovative Learning Environments. París: OECD.
Pereira, A. y Díaz, D. (2018). Inclusión digital y los retos para la innovación educativa en Brasil y Colombia. Revista Iberoamericana de Psicología, 11(3), 82–88. https://doi.org/10.33881/2027-1786.rip.11307
Peters, M. & Humes, W. (2003). Education in the Knowledge Economy. Policy Futures in Education, 1(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.2304/pfie.2003.1.1.1
República de Colombia. CESU. (2014). Propuesta de política pública para la excelencia de la educación superior en Colombia en el escenario de la paz. [Acuerdo por lo superior 2034]. Bogotá D.C.: Consejo Nacional de Educación Superior. Disponible en https://www.mineducacion.gov.co/1621/w3-article-344500.html
República de Colombia. MEN. (25 de julio de 2019). Por el cual se sustituye el Capítulo 2 y se suprime el Capítulo 7 del Título 3 de la Parte 5 del Libro 2 del Decreto 1075 de 2015 -Único Reglamentario del Sector Educación. [Decreto 1330]. Diario Oficial: 51.025.
Salmi, J. (2009). El desafio de crear universidades de clase mundial. Washington: Banco Mundial.
Schwab, K. (2016). La cuarta revolución industrial. Barcelona: Peguin Random House.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. New York: Doubleday.
Schwartz, P. y Medina, J. (1995). La planificación estratégica por escenarios. Cuadernos de Administración, 14(21), 199–225. https://doi.org/10.25100/cdea.v14i21.114
Stock, G. (2008). The current status and the future of universities within society. In, L. Engwall & D. Weaire, The University in the Market (pp. 77–89). London: Portland Press.
UNESCO. (2015). Unesco science report: Towards 2030. París: Unesco.
Weinhardt, J. & Sitzmann, T. (2019). Revolutionizing training and education? Three questions regarding massive open online courses (MOOCs). Human Resource Management Review, 29(2), 218–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrmr.2018.06.004
Whiteside, T. (2019). The sociology of educational innovation. New York: Routledge.
WEF. (2016). New Vision for Education. Davos: World Economic Forum.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 CULTURA EDUCACIÓN Y SOCIEDAD
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Creative Commons 2020 CULTURA EDUCACIÓN Y SOCIEDAD
This article is under international license Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObrasDerivadas 4.0.
The published articles are the sole responsibility of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editorial committee.
CULTURA EDUCACIÓN Y SOCIEDAD respects the moral rights of its authors, who assign to the editorial committee the patrimonial rights of the published material. In turn, the authors inform that this work is unpublished and has not been previously published.
All articles are under a:
Licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 4.0 Internacional.
English
Español (España)
_12.53_.27_p_. m_._3.png)
_12.57_.35_p_. m_._3.png)
_12.50_.37_p_. m_._3.png)
