Tactical Crop planning model under uncertainty
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17981/ingecuc.16.2.2020.20Keywords:
stochastic programming, crop planning, passion fruit, decision making, optimization under uncertaintyAbstract
Introduction- Currently, decision making is one of the most important processes in crop planning and the uncertainties experienced by fields in open field conditions. This is necessary to develop planning models that incorporate these uncertainties as presented in the next investigation.
Objective- To apply a tactical model for the optimization of the supply chain in the production of passion fruit for three producers in the municipality of Suaza, Huila considering three probable scenarios to support the planning decisions, to serve as a tool to support the making of decisions in crop planning.
Methodology- The chosen modeling is a stochastic bi-stage program where the decisions in the first stage are taken to satisfy the uncertain results of the second stage. The proposed model determines how many hectares each producer must plant to minimize costs considering yield, leaving the price as the source of uncertainty for the second stage. Finally, the expected utility is analyzed under different scenarios.
Results- The results of the model show that risk-sharing strategies based on cooperation between producers can achieve higher profits in different scenarios and meet market needs; in the pessimistic scenario a profit of $ 15,982,562.62 can be achieved.
Conclusions- Applying models under uncertainty allow us to obtain recommendations on planning processes to make decisions that conform to a stochastic approach compared to the results obtained without considering uncertainty, and in turn propose collaborative farm management strategies.The resulting model shows a starting point to establish more robust production plans that adjust to the needs of producers, considering the importance of variables and random parameters on planting decisions.
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